Theories and Falsification.

‘And thirdly, the code is more what you’d call “guidelines” than actual rules. Welcome aboard the Black Pearl, Miss Turner.’ Captain Barbossa, 2003

Without trying to be too polymath in writing TT&F, having already borrowed from market theory and Pirates of the Caribbean, we must now turn to the scientific philosophy of Sir Karl Popper in order to explain the ramifications of theory writing and their application.

The TT&F theories are tentative, correctable and dynamic, in allowing for changes to be made as new data is discovered, rather than asserting certainty. Through empirical testing they have been found to work consistently well for prescribed match situations. However, there are many instances that are not ‘obvious’ when watching a game that will seem to make the theories invalid. Before outlining our theories, we would like to make clear certain conditions that will falsify the theory and may not be observable with an untrained glance. A falsification is simply a condition that makes the proposed theory at the very least uncertain, at the most invalid.

Falsification One: Player Condition

If players are being over-trained and/or are tired then the tactics will not be totally effective. If your training schedules result in players being less than 95% fit pre-match on a regular basis it is your training rather than the tactics that is causing poor performance.

Falsification Two: Team Talks

If the team is poorly motivated, overly relaxed or put under too much pre-match pressure then the tactics will not be totally effective. If your players regularly fail to perform to standard in either half then it is likely you have made a bad team talk. This can usually be rectified at half time with a swift boot up the backside. However, a poor half-time team talk will leave you little option but wait out the match with a defensive mindset.

Falsification Three: Over-Confidence

Once a team has gone on a long winning streak they will inevitable become over-confident and produce a bad half, no matter the quality of team-talk. Recognising this, adapting to a conservative rather than expansive tactic and remedying the performance with the half time team talk is vital for continued success.

Falsification Four: Squad Personality

If a squad is full of low determination douche-bags or temperamental whiners even the best-laid plans will falter. Make sure at least you have one high determination leader to maintain in-match focus.

Falsification Five: Ruined by Success

This is a somewhat personal theory, but it has held water on most previous editions of FM. If you achieve consistent success over a 5-6 year period you will need to refresh your squad. Selling and replacing some of your top players should see a renewed drive for success. If the team is getting stale you will see more last minute comebacks and low scoring games, no matter how many good tactical decisions you make.

Falsification Six: Poor Morale

If you have made a series of bad decisions and results have gone against you the team’s morale will drop. This will affect the type of tactic you should choose, partly because the players will make mistakes, partly because other teams feel they can beat you. So, on a bad run, don’t try to follow the rules. Be a little more conservative, slowly turn defeats into draws, draws into wins and then be expansive again.

Falsification Seven: Media Interaction

Poor media interaction can make players nervous. Having a plethora of worried players in the side will make expansive tactics more risky. If a lot of players have reacted negatively to your media interaction, consider being more cautious than you would normally.

Falsification Eight: Squad Gelling

If your squad is full of new players it will perform below expectations. It takes roughly 15 games for a squad of new players to start gelling. Check with the Assistant Manager to see how well the squad has settled. Some teams are flaky at the beginning of the game (famously West Ham in ’07) which will make managing them more difficult.

Falsification Nine: Manager Reputation

Usually only a problem when starting a new game, a low reputation manager will struggle to have any influence over a top class side full of seasoned professionals. Performance will suffer until some level of reputation has been achieved.

Falsification Ten: Bad Luck

Occasionally you will lose a match you should have won despite making a series of near perfect tactical choices. Maybe the AI manager did so too, which negated your decisions, maybe the AI keeper had the game of his life, maybe two goals went in from massive deflections, maybe a misplaced back pass was intercepted for a goal, maybe their grunt midfielder scored a once-in-a-lifetime 35-yard scorcher. The key is recognising whether it is a one off lightening strike or a consistent pattern. If it is the first, don’t panic into changing things. If the second, then you will need to do something and quickly. Once again, making the right decision at the right time will be key.

If all of the above are taken into consideration when choosing tactics, then the following sections will provide a rough set of guidelines to tactical design and tactical decision making for various scenarios. All of the above can detrimentally affect the success of any tactic, no matter how well designed. If you manage them well and reduce the instances of their occurrence then TT&F tactics will bring sustained success if applied to the requisite match situations