June 2, 2008

Oh yes. It’s back. The FMB:CL review of the year. Who will “beat” Iain Dowie to last place this term? Will Fergie have improved on last year’s impressive score? Well, let’s find out.

The FMB:CL computer has calculated the points for every full time Premier League manager in 2007/2008. By using the team’s predicted position in FM2008, the amount of points accumulated and (important for hired and fired managers) the amount of games played. Simply, did these managers under or over-acheive. And by how much.

For those of you who have taken part in, or kept up to date with, the FMB:CL forums, you’ll know that a score of 100.00 points is exactly what a manager should acheive if he gets an average amount of points with a team predicted to finish 10th and ends the season in that position.

Sounds complicated? Don’t worry. Here are the managers in order. That is, FMB:CL order. Their actual league positions were very different…

The number in brackets applies to those managers who made the 2006/2007 list last year and how far up or down they have moved in this year’s roll of (dis)honour.

1. (-) Avram Grant – Chelsea (sacked)
Score – 164.27 (-)
Finished – 2nd with 74 points (from 32 games)
Predicted Finish – 2.47*

Who’d’ve Adam and Eve’d it? Baron Greenback, the man nobody wanted, the man nobody thought would replace Mourniho, the man who took Chelsea to their first European Cup final and won the FMB:CL crown. Bear in mind, too, that our computer doesn’t even take into account cup matches, and you realise what a staggering season Grant had in incredibly difficult circumstances. And he still got sacked. What a way to go, eh? Still, he can hold his head up high. He wins our little league here because, if you look at it, he not only took over a team that Mourinho had let slip down the league, he also got more points per match than any other manager. On that basis alone, he’s manager of the season. Let’s hope he gets work somewhere soon.

* – predicted finish is based on the fact Grant took over Chelsea in 5th position with 32 games left to play

2. (-1) Sir Alex Fergusson – Manchester United
Score – 161.50 (- 6.15)
Finished – 1st with 87 points
Predicted Finish – 1st

Alex Fergusson lets himself go a little here and drops one position and six points on last season. Why, I hear you ask? Partly down to Grant’s very impressive points haul, but partly also because United were expected to triumph this season. Expectation always hurts a manager in the FMB:CL computer, though in fairness it was only worth a couple of points to him. Last year United got 89 points in the league. Still, not to worry, because I think Sir Alex would take the European Cup over a second successive FMB:CL crown, don’t you? Still if he gets 90 points next year he could well snatch the crown back. After all, Grant is very unlikely to be in a position to mount a title defence…

3. (+6) Arsene Wenger – Arsenal
Score – 152.99 (+38.21)
Finished - 3rd with 83 points
Predicted Finish – 4th

You can’t keep a good Alsatian down, or something along those lines. Wenger storms up the league to third place, in reality and in the FMB:CL. To put things in context. Liverpool came third last season with 68 points (and Arsenal came 4th with the same number). Despite only climbing one league place, l’Arsenal gained a phenomenal 15 points. To put that in context, that’s the difference between Reading and West Ham United this season. A tribute to not only Wenger’s resolve but to the gulf being created between the Champions League teams and the also rans. Still, well done to you Arsene, and let’s see more of the same next year.

4. (-) Sven Goran Erikson – Manchester City (sacked)
Score - 141.21 (-)
Finished – 9th with 55 points
Predicted Finish – 14th

Thaksin Shinawatra is a complete muppet. The computer says so. Manchester City have sacked the fourth best manager of 2007/2008. Despite getting a team of players that had never even seen England before, let alone their own team mates, to play well enough to challenge for Europe, get the double over United and qualify for Europe (albeit through the fair play league), Sven was sacked this summer. An 8-1 defeat to Boro might blot his copy book, but it’s fair to say Mexico are getting a decent manager. City, however, might be on the slide. At least, based on FMB:CL ranking they might. Who knows what the future might bring. However, we’ve seen 4 managers so far. Half of them won’t be in at the same team next season.

5. (+2) Martin O’Neil – Aston Villa
Score - 136.91 (+12.30)
Finished – 6th with 60 points
Predicted Finish – 10th

They might lose Gareth Barry, but if they keep O’Neil, Villa might do alright. Their rise up the table has been impressive, and their reward is European football for next season. O’Neil’s score is good compared to the other managers because he has slightly overachieved, in much the same way as he did last year. This year, however, his total number of points is a lot higher, giving him a much better score. Villa are a team on the up. Can they keep it that way? However you look at it, I’m going to place money on the fact that they finish the best team in the West Midlands in ’09.

6. (+3) Rafael Benitez – Liverpool
Score - 133.22 (+18.45)
Finished – 4th with 76 points
Predicted Finish – 3rd

A bit better than last season. At least they looked like there was a chance of them challenging for the title until at least September this year. The higher points haul reflects this in the FMB:CL score. Benitez is still only achieving about what he should, however. This lack of anything special is what holds him back. Again. Benitez was the subject of much speculation last year, and you can see why. He’s getting better. But is it quickly enough for the Yanks?

7. (-) Roy Hodgson – Fulham
Score - 132.58 (-)
Finished – 17th with 23 points from 18 games
Predicted Finish – 18th

The Great Escape this season was Fulham. And because Hodgson was able to get such a good points per game ratio with a side expected to go down he grabs 7th place, not far behind Benitez or O’Neil. Sanchez didn’t make things any easier, either. He left the team in 18th place, meaning the predicted finish doesn’t change. Hodgson did it all on his own, and is rewarded accordingly. Whether or not he can pull off the same feat next season remains to be seen. I certainly won’t be holding my breath. Still, it’s the second change on management we’ve seen this season (see Grant) which has pulled off. Shame we have to say congrats to Al-Fayed, really…

8. (-2) David Moyes – Everton
Score - 128.09 (-3.08)
Finished – 5th with 65 points
Predicted Finish – 6th

Not quite as good as last time round, but another solid performance. Moyes is always held back by the glass ceiling that is 5th place. The Champions League places are just too hard to reach. Still, he made a damn good effort and pushed Everton to just above where they were expected. Similar season to O’Neil, but Villa had lower expectations, so Moyes just loses out to him. Better luck next year – especially if Liverpool implode.

9. (-6) Harry Redknapp – Portsmouth
Score - 124.61 (-35.13)
Finished – 8th with 57 points
Predicted Finish – 9th

Expectations crippled Redknapp this time. Last year, you may recall, Harry finished third behind Coppell and Fergusson. This year, because of his much higher predicted finish he drops to ninth, despite actually getting more points in the league. An FA Cup win is more than consolation however, so I don’t think he’ll kick himself too much. From now on in, though. Redknapp will have to push for Champions League places to match his previous scores. Unfortunately, when expectations rise the only way for FMB:CL scores is down…

10. (+2) Alan Curbishley – West Ham United
Score – 122.77 (+9.70)
Finished - 10th with 49 points
Predicted Finish – 15th

Steady improvement for the mastermind of last season’s great escape, Curbs was expected to do little more than skirt around the drop zone. Despite the boo boys at Upton Park, however, West Ham were never in danger of going down. And that’s actually quite an achievement, really. Because of this, Curbishley does much better than similar managers such as Ramos, Keegan and Hughes. Lower expectations, solid league position – not half bad. I think, however, he may have to do significantly better next season if he wants to continue rising up the FMB:CL charts. And, more pressingly, keep his job.

11. (-7) Jose Mourinho – Chelsea (sacked)
Score - 115.18 (-35.45)
Finished - 5th with 11 points (from 6 games)
Predicted Finish – 2nd

What a fall from grace. Do Inter know what they’re getting? Mourinho crashed from fourth to eleventh in the table after a poor start to the 2007/2008 campaign. Of course, unlike some of the other managers who started badly (Fergie, anyone?), Mourinho wasn’t given any time to turn the ship around. Chelsea went on to narrowly miss the title. Still, since Avram won the FMB:CL this year, you have to say the decision was a wise one. On the basis of the stats, Mourinho had a very, very average season. What there was of it.

12. (-) Steve Bruce – Birmingham City and Wigan Athletic
Score - 112.38* (-)
Finished – 15th and 14th*
Predicted Finish – 17th and 19.26*

Steve Bruce was the only manager this season to manage two teams. Last season, you’ll recall, I separated Alan Curbishley and Alan Pardew’s seasons into two parts, letting them both enter the league twice. This year I’ve decided just to average out Bruce’s scores. For Birmingham, Bruce scores 80.03, leaving Blues with a poor points total and hovering above relegation. For Wigan, however, his record was actually very strong, giving him a score of 144.75 – the 4th best of the season. He is helped in no small part by FM2008’s insistence on grading Wigan as the 20th best side in the division, behind Derby – clearly a mistake, but Bruce still managed to comfortably survive with a team predicted to finish just below 19th place (after the recalculations). Not bad, Brucey. You finished 11th, but could be classed as 4th or 19th depending on what mood you feel in.

* – Bruce got 80.03 with Birmingham (11 points from 13 games) and 144.75 with Wigan (32 points from 24 games). Wigan predicted finish recalculated after taking over from Hutchings.

13. (+4) Mark Hughes – Blackburn Rovers
Score - 109.44 (+20.90)
Finished – 7th with 58 points
Predicted Finish – 8th

Hughes got a poor score last year for “only” getting the Intertoto Cup, and it’s a similar story this year, though at least he breaks the 100-point barrier. The problem with Blackburn (and Everton, and Tottenham) is that we expect them to get the UEFA Cup. There’s very little for them to go up, but a hell of a long way to fall. If anything, for one of the Premier League’s mid table teams, 100 is a good score to get. Much better than last year, Mr Hughes though once again you’re a victim of your own success. Move to a team with a much lower predicted finish and do well with them, and you’ll be OK. Ah, you’ve moved to Manchester City. No chance of that, then…

14. (-) Juande Ramos – Tottenham Hotspur
Score - 108.53 (-)
Finished – 11th with 39 points (from 28 games)
Predicted Finish – 8.42*

If, unlike Hughes, you can’t find a team with a low predicted finish, take over a team that has been left to struggle at the wrong end of the table for a quarter of a season. It works, just look at Ramos. Jol was expected to finish 5th. He did so badly, by the time Juande took over they weren’t expected to finish 8th. OK, Ramos didn’t get up to that level, but he got enough points from his final games to push Tottenham well into safety and looks impressive. Tottenham will be expected to challenge once again for the Champions League places next year, and that will in all likelihood mean Ramos’ score will reduce next year, even if he takes 5th place. Raise a glass to him, though. He thoroughly destroyed Martin Jol and, in the process, lifted the Carling Cup. And beat the Arsenal U12s in the process. Yep, used that joke last year too.

* – Recalculated score based on Spurs’ position when Ramos took charge

15. (-) Alex McLeish – Birmingham City
Score - 93.37 (-)
Finished – 19th with 24 points (from 24 games)
Predicted Finish – 16.26

McLeish had a difficult job, and he did it reasonably well. However, he couldn’t quite keep Birmingham up. Despite Bruce’s reasonably high finishing position in the league, McLeish actually did a better job. Had he managed another win, not only would he have kept Blues up, he’d have got over 100 points. One point a game is indeed relegation form, but compare that record to Sanchez, Davies, Jewell or even Roy Keane and it’s actually very respectable for a team predicted to go down. Not a bad score, and potentially for Birmingham fans a good sign for next season’s push for the Championship title.

16. (-) Kevin Keegan – Newcastle United
Score – 90.59 (-)
Finished – 12th with 23 points (from 19 games)
Predicted finish – 11th

The Messiah. Hmm, I seem to remember Jesus having a bigger impact. I mean, Keegan did better than Allardyce, certainly, but not much better. And, indeed, he dropped one league position to 12th. Newcastle’s abysmal and mystifying form when Keegan took over the club led some to believe they might actually go down. He recovered with style, though, and managed to steady the ship. The Toon Army will be hoping for a much better year next season. But was Keegan really the right man for the job? Time will undoubtedly tell.

17. (-) Roy Keane – Sunderland
Score – 87.10 (-)
Finished - 15th with 39 points
Predicted Finish – 16

Another victory for Newcastle over their North East rivals. But hang on a second – Keegan dropped a position on his prediction. Sunderland gained one. Surely, Keane did better? Well, let me put it bluntly – 39 points from 28 games is a point ratio that, in most other leagues in the world, would have relegated Sunderland (in fact, it did relegate Leicester City, Bournemouth, Gillingham (and even if Bournemouth hadn’t had 10 points deducted, Crewe Alexandra), Zaragoza and RC Lens). As it was, they and Fulham and Bolton all survived with around one point a game. I told you McLeish did OK. The big achievement, however, was survival in the Premier League. Yes, 87 points seems a little harsh. But if we base it solely on the stats, it’s not really that far off the mark. Do better next year, Roy.

18. (-13) Sam Allardyce – Newcastle United (sacked)
Score – 80.98 (-50.35)
Finished – 11th with 20 points (from 18 games)
Predicted Finish – 11th

Oh dear. What a fall from grace. Allardyce didn’t do very well, did he? Certainly worse than Keegan, and not quite as well as Keane. His points total was very modest, and he was hovering around the position the media expected him to finish in. Most people (me included) thought the whole Big Sam saga was a farce. It seems, however, that the stats support Mike Ashley’s decision. When you consider that Grant and Erikson got sacked for not doing well enough, Sam Allardyce’s record was probably worth a crucifiction. But then, there is only one messiah.

19. (-4) Gareth Southgate – Middlesbrough
Score – 79.11 (-12.11)
Finished – 13th with 42 points
Predicted Finish – 12th

What is it about Southgate and the FMB:CL? The computer hates him. Last season, he had a decent year, finishing 12th (when expected to). This season, he does similarly well. So why has he lost so many points. Well, the main reason is the lack of quality at the foot of the Premier League. The bottom 10 this year were quite a way behind the next 7 who were in turn quite a way behind the top 3. This lack of points has meant that teams towards the bottom are being punished by the computer for being so far behind the pace. In a “normal” league or a “normal” season, Boro would have scraped survival by the skin of their teeth. As it was, they survived comfortably. Southgate is doing OK – but only because everyone around him is so dreadful.

20. (-) Gary Megson – Bolton Wanderers
Score – 77.26 (-)
Finished – 16th with 32 points (from 28 games)
Predicted Finish – 10.16*

Megson, also, managed to do pretty well with a side bereft of anyone able to stick the ball in the back of the net. A decent win over Athletico Madrid in the UEFA Cup added a lift to the team, but basically without Anelka, Bolton should have been down. They didn’t succumb, however, and found themselves finishing in 16th place. A decent effort after the hole Sammy Lee had put them in. So why is Megson 20th? Well, even though Lee helped bring down expectations, the fact remains that Bolton finished in a UEFA Cup spot last year. The FMB:CL computer, therefore, calculates that Megson should have had a side capable of climing out of the hole comfortably. The fact that they didn’t says more about how dire Bolton are without Allardyce than about Megson’s managerial prowess, but nevertheless, Megson gets a paltry 77 points. Which is pretty fair on Bolton Wanderers Football Club, less so on Gary.

* – refined prediction based on Sammy Lee’s laughable efforts

21. (-19) Steve Coppell – Reading
Score – 70.50 (-95.51)
Finished – 18th with 36 points
Predicted Finish – 13th

BUMP. That was the sound of Reading crashing back down to Earth. Coppell was second in the FMB:CL last year. Now he doesn’t even make the top 20 in a 20-club Premier League. It’s an incredibly turnaround for a club on the verge of Europe last year. Put in context, the “second season syndrome” affected Wigan and West Ham United last year. Alan Pardew and Paul Jewell got 24.26 and 61.49 respectively. So, Coppell didn’t do too badly. However, he still got relegated. His inflated media prediction hurts his score, but at the end of the day, less than one point per game and a disappointing league position by anyone’s standards leave him well down the table. Relegated on goal difference on the final day of the season. Must hurt.

22. (-1) Lawrie Sanchez - Fulham (sacked)
Score – 67.42 (+9.38)
Finished – 18th with 13 points (from 17 games)
Predicted Finish – 18th

Last season, we jokingly gave Sanchez a score despite the fact he only managed the team for five games. Actually, it looks like we weren’t far off. Fulham did poorly under Sanchez, and this was made to look even more silly based on Hodgson’s magic touch for the second half of the season. Sanchez wasn’t doing that badly, but worse than Chris Coleman whom he replaced last term. It’s another sacking I thought was harsh, but again we have to look at the cold, hard facts. Sanchez was doing badly with a side expected to do badly. Even Megson, expected to finish 10th did better than him. Not very good, is it?

23. (-) Colin Hutchinson – Wigan Athletic (sacked)
Score – 57.66 (-)
Finished – 18th with 8 points (from 12 games)
Predicted Finish – 20th

Who? Oh, yeah, that guy. The invinsible boring one who also ruined Bradford when he took over from Jewell. Yeah, he was rubbish wasn’t he? When you consider Bruce managed to make survival look almost effortless for the Latics, it’s hard to see just how it was possible for Wigan to do so poorly under Hutchinson. What is quite entertaining, however, is that he did better than Paul Jewell in 2008. Well, Hutchinson scores a massive 0.00 for 2008. You wait ‘til you see what his old boss did…

24. (-) Billy Davies – Derby County (sacked)
Score – 24.30 (-)
Finished – 20th with 6 points (from 14 games)
Predicted Finish – 19th

Derby didn’t finish bottom in everything this year. Their first manager, sadly, did better than their second. A poor decision by the board? Every other sacking this season resulted in an improved performance from the new manager. Not this one however, and in spectacular fashion. Davies, despite being boss for less than half the season got over half Derby’s points. Oh, but they were dreadful, weren’t they? Abysmal.

25. (-24) Martin Jol – Tottenham Hotspur (sacked)
Score – 8.57 (-104.97)
Finished – 18th with 7 points (from 10 games)
Predicted Finish – 5th

When I punched this score in earlier on in the season, I couldn’t believe anyone could get such a low score. But miraculously, Jol isn’t the worst. A deserved sacking based on the stats – Tottenham should have been pushing for the Champions League, not battling with Fulham for the survival spots – Ramos did a far better job. Sad really. I quite liked Jol and still think he is a good manager. But this is certainly a year to forget for the Dutchman who is off to Germany for next season.

26. (-7) Paul Jewell – Derby County
Score - -2.69 (-64.18)
Finished – 20th with 5 points (from 24 games)
Predicted Finish – 19.37*

A negative score shouldn’t really be possible, should it? The computer is basically saying Derby were so poor under Jewell that it can’t even begin to calculate it. 5 points was the sum total of Jewell’s efforts. There’s not much more to say, is there? Other than it can’t get any worse. Well, actually, I’m lying. It can get worse. Bolton fans, look away now…

* – predicted finish after Davies’ tenure

27. (-) Sammy Lee – Bolton Wanderers (sacked)
Score - -4.83 (-)
Finished – 19th with 5 points (from 9 games)
Predicted Finish – 7th

Oh no he didn’t! Oh yes he did. Sammy Lee managed to get a minus score with a side expected to get the UEFA Cup. Not only is this hilariously bad, it helped Gary Megson look like a legend when he saved the club on the final day of the season. Lee’s record was absolutely terrible. A deserved sacking on so many levels, the only real issue is whether he should have been hired in the first place.