January 19, 2008

The FMB:CL Computer’s Review of 2006/2007.

Those of you who submit your seasons to the FM-B Champions League may well get your result and go – “Yeah… so what?” What does that number that you’ve just received actually mean? Is it any good? Well, you can judge that for yourself.

OK, you need something to compare it to. And here is that comparison. This is FM-B’s review of the 2006/2007 FA Premier League season as seen by our FM-B:CL computer. Every manager from the short-but-not-so-sweet reign of Les Reed through to the title-winning Sir Alex Fergusson (and everyone in between) is given a score as if they’d been playing SI’s simulation themselves. For those of you who have managed in the Premier League on FM07, how close did you get to the real-life incumbents of your office? For everyone else, here’s the definitive list of how the managers of the Premier League should be ranked. Are you better, or have you got a lot of learning to do?

Each manager is ranked according to their FM-B:CL score, and we assess how well they did and how hard it might be to emulate or surpass their score in FM07. The only one we’ve left out is Sammy Lee who only completed two games. This wasn’t enough to gauge how good the guy was.

This article was originally written during the summer break in 2007. As an addendum, I’ve added the scores of the managers who lost their jobs in the early part of the 2007/08 season so you can see which scores to avoid on the latest installment of the game.

Millie

1) Sir Alex Fergusson (167.65)
Manchester United
Predicted Finish: 2nd
Actual Finish: 1st
Points: 89

The Real Man
The old man does it again, and there’s no doubting the achievement of ending Chelsea’s dreams of winning a hat-trick of Premier League titles. The FM-B:CL computer quite rightly acknowledges that, while United were always one of the favourites for the title, the sheer amount of points they gained, coupled with their slight over-achievement of finishing top rather than second means that Fergusson takes our Manager of the Year award.

The Virtual Man
What does this mean for FM07 players? Well, manage a better points haul than 89 (which, quite frankly, is bloody hard to do) and you might be able to beat Fergie. He did benefit through a lack of long-term injuries, so to succeed you may have to be just as lucky or use some of the Glazer’s money to bolster the squad and get cover for key players..

2) Steve Coppell (166.01)
Reading
Predicted Finish: 19th
Actual Finish: 8th
Points: 55

The Real Man
Coppell may well be the most boring man in football, but there’s no denying that he had an absolute stormer of a season. Not only did he save Reading from the drop, he managed to take them to the brink of Europe, and had he applied for the Intertoto Cup he’d probably be in some far flung corner of Eastern Europe trying to outwit a team with far too many consonants for ITV’s David Pleat to cope with. Quite rightly, he’s considered one of the foremost managers of the season, narrowly missing out on top spot. If Bolton had lost just one more match he would have been less than one point off Fergie. Our hats go off to you, Mr. Coppell.

The Virtual Man
Can anyone do better than this? To beat Coppell, you’ll need to qualify for Europe, or at the very least get a big points haul and narrowly miss it. The problem is that the teams above him (Everton, Tottenham, Bolton and the “Big 4”) will be very, very difficult to overcome. If there’s a challenge left in FM07, it may well be to break the 167 barrier with Reading. Especially when you consider the lack of funds available and the low reputation of the club.

3) Harry Redknapp (159.04)
Portsmouth
Predicted Finish: 17th
Actual Finish: 9th
Points: 54

The Real Man
Despite being only a single point and a single position behind Reading, Portsmouth’s slightly higher expectations put Harry a fair few points behind Coppell. That being said, he still gets the bronze medal. Had Portsmouth continued their early season form, who knows how many points they could have got? Redknapp has the knack of getting old heads to work like clockwork, taking a bunch of misfits to the brink of Europe. And, in acknowledgement of that fact, the FM-B:CL computer thinks he’s better than Mourinho. At least, he was this season.

The Virtual Man
Much like Reading, doing better than Harry may be difficult. Again, European football would probably be a minimum requirement. Although there’s some Russian money around somewhere, you’ll have to squeeze quite a bit out of the board or be as tactically astute as old Redknapp if you want to beat his score.

4) José Mourinho (150.43)
Chelsea
Predicted Finish: 1st
Actual Finish: 2nd
Points: 83

The Real Man
He may have missed out on the real Champions League again, but much like the real thing, “The Special One” is a semi-finalist in FM-B:CL. The thing is, Chelsea didn’t do that badly last term. 83 points may well have won them the title any other year, but they were beaten by an even more efficient team. Therefore, the FM-B:CL computer has given them quite a high score in recognition of their very high points total, but holds them back because they were predicted to win the title. 150 is very respectable though. I’m sure José won’t turn his nose up at it.

The Virtual Man
This score is beatable. The title can be won with far more than 83 points considering Chelsea’s strength and depth. If you don’t like the players that are there, you can always buy new ones with Abramovic’s cash. Therefore if you want a bit of a challenge with FM07, but you want an easier game where you’ve got a chance of walking a few games, this one might be for you.

5) Sam Allardyce (131.33)
Bolton Wanderers
Predicted Finish: 9th
Actual Finish: 5th (*)
Points: 55 (over 36 games)

The Real Man
When Big Sam left Bolton for some time out from football (all two minutes of it), he left Bolton 5th in the league with 55 points and virtually guaranteed a UEFA Cup berth. His successor added just one more point to the total and left the club 7th. Had we taken these results into account, Bolton ranked 8th, but as it is Allardyce takes 5th and just pips Moyes. The most boring team in the Premiership some people have said. At least Newcastle fans know that they have got themselves a really good manager who can get an unfancied club to punch well above their weight.

The Virtual Man
I don’t know about you, but every time I play FM07 Bolton seem to be fighting against relegation rather than scaling Europe. With a small budget, small reputation and reasonably high expectations, it will be tough to beat Big Sam’s score. It could be possible, but it would probably require Champions League qualification or a UEFA cup finish with over 60 points.

(*) – position in league when Allardyce resigned

6) David Moyes (131.17)
Everton
Predicted Finish: 10th
Actual Finish: 6th
Points: 58

The Real Man
Despite fears of an average season for Everton, the Toffees showed more of the class that they showed a couple of years ago in their surprise Champions League qualifying season. Moyes has shown himself to be able to do good things with a decent club, and because he got Europe when the media expected a mid-table finish he’s been ranked 6th of all the Premier League managers this year, just 0.15 short of Sam Allardyce. 58 points is a very respectable points total, too, in quite a tight league behind the front 4.

The Virtual Man
A few shrewd deals and a bit more luck and you could do better with Everton, though to beat Moyes’s score you may need to push for the Champions League positions. Everton have a bit of money, but not much. However, they do have Andrew Johnson, Tim Cahill and quite a settled squad, so if you get the tactics right there’s no reason why his score isn’t beatable.

7) Martin O’Neil (124.61)
Aston Villa
Predicted Finish: 15th
Actual Finish: 11th
Points: 50

The Real Man
Remember at one point in the season when Aston Villa were unbeaten and, despite the promise of US dollars in the form of Randy Learner’s bank account, O’Neil had apparently performed miracles without spending a cent? Then remember around January time when O’Neil hadn’t won a game in what seemed like three decades and the team were mathematically (if not practically) in danger of being dragged into the relegation zone? Then remember hearing nothing of Villa after signing Ashley Young? If so, then 6th place for the Villa boss may surprise you. Consider, though, that they were predicted a bottom-mid table spot, were one win away from an Intertoto Cup berth and that they finished comfortably mid table and you begin to realise that O’Neil did a good job over 38 games. As transition seasons go, it wasn’t bad, and at least it was better than the media expected. So, O’Neil gets a decent score.

The Virtual Man
The FM player has an advantage that O’Neil didn’t, and that is that using the 7.0.2 patch he has not only O’Neil’s signings but £20-odd million to spend and a chairman willing to exceed that if you go after the right high profile player. So, with a bit of common sense and decent tactics you should be able to get Europe with Villa and beat O’Neil convincingly. You still get a media prediction of 15th, despite all this money, and a good little squad, so if you don’t get over 120 then you’re probably not doing something right.

Alan Pardew (115.18)
Charlton Athletic
Predicted Finish: 18th (*)
Actual Finish: 19th
Points: 22 (over 19 games)

The Real Man
Let’s just concentrate on his time at the Valley, since his West Ham record is far grimmer. 8th may sound very inflated for The Man Who Couldn’t Save Charlton Athletic, Part III, but Pardew actually had quite a good record there. He got more points per game than Newcastle’s Glen Roeder and considering the computer expected Charlton to be relegated by the point that he took over that’s quite a large amount of points. Pardew is, in effect, rewarded for the ineptitude of his predecessors, but that doesn’t detract from the fact that he managed to get a club that looked completely dead and buried to the brink of salvation, only to find that it was far too late to do anything about their shocking season under Dowie and Reed.

The Virtual Man
Pardew’s record is difficult to judge because he joined mid season and managed to lift a team off bottom of the table. 115 suggests that it was an average season, so in FM07 you might be able to beat him if you finish somewhere around 12th with about 50 points. Similar to Villa last time round.

(*) – modified target based on previous league performance of Charlton

=9) Arsene Wenger (114.77)
Arsenal
Predicted Finish: 4th
Actual Finish: 4th
Points: 68

The Real Man
Arsenal had a very average season, so their manager receives a very average score. Despite having a shot completion ratio of around 1 goal to every 48 shots, Arsenal did get a good amount of points last year and were denied third only by goal difference, so to say it was a terrible season would be harsh. But it also wasn’t very good. A Carling Cup final for the U14s side was a good day out in Cardiff, but in terms of the Premier League Wenger had another “transition” season, and his score reflects this.

The Virtual Man
Providing you spend their cash wisely and manage to improve their shot ratio, Arsenal should be able to challenge hard for the title on FM07. Anything better than 4th and/or 70 points will probably beat Wenger’s mark and it shouldn’t be too hard, given a bit of luck, to maybe even surpass Fergusson by approaching his points total. It’s more than doable, but it will require getting a team of youngsters to gel and perform over 38 games.

=9) Rafa Benitez (114.77)
Liverpool
Predicted Finish: 3rd
Actual Finish: 3rd
Points: 68

The Real Man
Sorry, Champions League finals just don’t cut the mustard here. Your league season was average again, Mr. Benitez, thanks to a shocking start and a tame finish spurred on by resting key players ahead of Champions League games. Benitez did just as well (exactly, in fact, according to the computer) as Wenger – or just as badly, depending on how you look at things – and I don’t think there can be too many complaints. A decent points haul, but the expected position, and well short of Chelsea. Must do better.

The Virtual Man
Much like Arsenal, this score is more than beatable. For a start, 68 points isn’t that much for a side supposedly chasing the title. With a couple of additions and some good higher league tactics there’s no reason why Liverpool can’t do better under you than under Benitez. It’s just a case of priorities, just as it was for Rafa – FM-B:CL or the UEFA:CL?

11) Martin Jol (113.54)
Tottenham Hotspur
Predicted Finish: 5th
Actual Finish: 5th
Points: 60

The Real Man
Jol is perhaps harshly treated here, since his predicted finish of 5th gave him no room for improvement whatsoever. Just like Benitez and Wenger, he gets roughly as many points as he should have done, finishes where he should have done and therefore gets an average number of points in our table. Jol had a good season, but let’s not forget that had Bolton not lost Allardyce he may well have finished 6th or even 7th had Moyes got a few more points from somewhere. It wouldn’t have made much difference to the overall score, but it does show how close Spurs were pushed. So, a little harsh, maybe, but then again there was nothing extraordinary about Tottenham this season either.

The Virtual Man
If you can get into the Champions League you can beat Jol, but that’s about the only way it’s going to happen. Unfortunately, their predicted finish of 5th is a nail in the coffin in terms of your dreams for big points, unless you can put together a title challenging side. Of course, it’s possible but realistically you’re aiming for around 115 with Tottenham with a view to challenging for the title in the 07/08 season. Consider 120 and above an achievement.

12) Alan Curbishley (113.07)
West Ham United
Predicted Finish: 12th (*)
Actual Finish: 15th
Points: 27 (over 21 games)

The Real Man
Here is a man who saved West Ham by the skin of their teeth. He should, perhaps, have done better. West Ham had money, a large, talented squad and poor teams all around them in the league. A few wins early on and they could have been pushing well out of the relegation zone. As it happens, West Ham didn’t splutter into life until the final few games of the season and they managed just enough to survive. Whether they deserved it or not, the FM-B:CL computer doesn’t care, and gives Curbishley credit for taking over a mess and steering it to safety. They did after all get nearly as many points per game under Curbs as Villa did under O’Neil.

The Virtual Man
You have plenty of money to spend plus Curbishley’s signings, so you can do something with the Hammers. However, the lack of squad gelling means it can be quite difficult to challenge for top honours with them. 113 suggests a team of West Ham’s expectations finishing in the top 6 with around 60 points. That’s actually quite a task.

(*) – modified target based on previous league performance of West Ham

13) Neil Warnock (96.74)
Sheffield United
Predicted Finish: 18th
Actual Finish: 18th
Points: 38

The Real Man
Yes, yes, it was all West Ham’s fault. Thing is though, Neil, even if they had been docked points or even if (heaven forbid) your players didn’t choke on the final day of the season you still wouldn’t have broken the 100 barrier. Sheffield did well, but nothing spectacular. They got an average of exactly 1 point a game which is relegation form and they didn’t survive. Perhaps the score is harsh on a man that did as well as everyone expected (perhaps better in many eyes), but in the end Sheffield United just weren’t good enough. Warnock’s score reflects a decent effort, but no real achievement.

The Virtual Man
Keep the Blades up and you’ll beat Warnock – it’s that simple. However, that’s not an easy task. Warnock is the highest rated manager to lose his job, and actually didn’t do too badly with what he was given, so try and use the limited funds wisely and get the best out of the few Premier League quality players in the squad and you might just reach 100.

14) Stuart Pearce (93.87)
Manchester City
Predicted Finish: 13th
Actual Finish: 14th
Points: 42

The Real Man
Most City fans seem to say of Pearce, “nice bloke, but no clue”. His score doesn’t seem to reflect that totally. Sure, he did worse than expected, and yes Manchester City scored fewer goals at home than any professional league side in England – ever. But he finished just one below his predicted finish and, despite having quite a low points total for that position he managed to keep City up. Pearce may not have been great at Eastlands, but he really wasn’t actually that bad. I know, I was surprised too.

The Virtual Man
You don’t have that much money to play with or a particularly impressive squad, but if you manage over 45 points and creep up the league a little you’ll beat Pearce and maybe reach 100 points. City have a very average prediction, so while you may not gain many points you shouldn’t lose too many either. It could be quite easy to get a good score here or a very poor one depending on which way the wind blows. A decent challenge.

15) Gareth Southgate (91.82)
Middlesbrough
Predicted Finish: 12th
Actual Finish: 12th
Points: 46

The Real Man
As with Pearce, Southgate finished roughly where he was expected to but didn’t get that many points. A score between 90 and 110 is pretty average, but the FM-B:CL computer puts Gareth very much at the bottom of this band. Boro were remarkably average this season, and although Southgate seemed to get into his stride after quite a poor start, it’s difficult to find many positives other than the fact that they didn’t go down. Average season.

The Virtual Man
This is more than doable. Aim for around 50 points and you may well get over 100, get around 40 points and you’ll struggle to survive, such is the lot of the mid-table clubs. Boro have a little money which can be bolstered by selling Downing to one of the nouveau rich clubs early on for a tasty profit. Then by adding the right players and a bit of nouse, Southgate should be beatable, however it’s difficult to see where the big points are going to come from here.

16) Chris Coleman (88.65)
Fulham
Predicted Finish: 14th
Actual Finish: 15th
Points: 35 (over 33 games)

The Real Man
Many people were surprised or at the very least a bit puzzled by the sacking of Coleman so close to the end of the season. However, the scores suggest that while he wasn’t terrible Cookie wasn’t that great either. Fulham only just survived, and 15th place belies the fact that they had only just over 1 point a game, quite a shocking statistic really. Coleman has a case for saying he wasn’t the worst in the league, but he was far from the best. His score of less than 90 suggests he may have been unlucky to get the boot, but it was certainly justifiable.

The Virtual Man
Difficult to say, really. Fulham have little money and little reputation. Coleman actually did as well as most people might have expected in terms of position, but his poor points haul got him the boot in the end, and that’s something you’ll need to avoid. Beating Coleman shouldn’t be overly tricky, but getting even 100 points with such a poor side (financially and skilfully) may be a challenge.

(*) – position in league when Coleman was sacked

17) Mark Hughes (88.54)
Blackburn Rovers
Predicted Finish: 7th
Actual Finish: 10th
Points: 52

The Real Man
Hold on a minute, didn’t Blackburn qualify for Europe? Well, yes, but only the Intertoto cup, and only because Reading and Portsmouth (our high fliers) didn’t bother applying for glorified friendlies in the Urals. 52 points is also quite poor for a team expected to finish 7th. So, while Blackburn may well represent England in the UEFA Cup this season, they’ll be doing so with the worst manager to keep his job and stay in the Premier League. Harsh? Perhaps, but then when you’re expected to get the UEFA Cup and you scrape the Intertoto then you deserve a lower score.

The Virtual Man
Blackburn should be able to push for the UEFA Cup, and even a finish as poor as 8th or 9th may well beat Mark Hughes. Aim for around 60 points, give or take a couple, and try and get Europe and you should get a score of 100, which will leave Hughes in the shade.

18) Adrian Boothroyd (62.72)
Watford
Predicted Finish: 19th
Actual Finish: 20th
Points: 28

The Real Man
Boothroyd and Watford were plucky in their Premier League adventure, but the fact remains that they finished bottom, got a very low total of points and, crucially, didn’t survive. Say all you want about character and entertainment, but in the cold light of day Watford didn’t do that well and the FM-B:CL showed no mercy in giving Boothroyd a disappointing 63 points. Still, at least Boothroyd kept his job and will be able to rebuild next season. Nobody expected anything of Watford, which was good because they didn’t give anything either.

The Virtual Man
Keeping Watford up will definitely beat Boothroyd. Actually, you could probably go down and still beat him. Providing you get over 30 points you’ll have outperformed Watford’s real-life total. To go for the “average” 100 mark you may have to do a bit more. How does 40 points sound?

19) Paul Jewell (61.49)
Wigan Athletic
Predicted Finish: 11th
Actual Finish: 17th
Points: 38

The Real Man
The great escape. Wigan got as many points as Sheffield United but stayed up on goal difference. Considering the pre-season hopes of Wigan, that’s very, very poor. Amazingly, Jewell kept his job where others were booted out the door, though based on Jewell’s past achievements, that is perhaps as much as he deserved. Jewell resigned at the end of the season. The media prediction may have been inflated based on last year’s amazing season, but to scrape 1 point a game, get survival on the last day by the skin of their teeth and generally do far worse than expected, Jewell gets a very low score.

The Virtual Man
Have sympathy with Jewell. To beat him shouldn’t be too hard since all you have to do is get 40 points (almost regardless of whether you go down or not), but to get the higher scores is quite a feat. Predicted 11th, you may well have to get a UEFA Cup or Intertoto Cup spot to get into triple figures, and considering Wigan’s position and squad that’s a very tall order indeed. Wigan do have a narrow pitch on FM07, however, so maybe you can use that to your advantage if you’re tactically astute enough.

20) Glen Roeder (59.64)
Newcastle United
Predicted Finish: 6th
Actual Finish: 13th
Points: 43

The Real Man
The worst manager to complete a season. Newcastle were predicted to get into Europe and yet struggled to get a lower-mid-table position. Even worse, 43 points is a terrible amount, quite rightly prompting the FM-B:CL computer to slap an embarrassing 60 points on Roeder. Expectations may well have been inflated due to Newcastle’s notoriously optimistic fanbase, but even so to finish 13th with so few points would have been unacceptable for most of the sides in the league.

The Virtual Man
Again, beating Roeder shouldn’t be difficult at all, but getting higher than 100 points may take some skill. 6th is overly inflated as a predicted finish because of Newcastle’s reputation, but you should still be aiming for Europe. If you manage around 55 points or more in the league coupled with a high UEFA Cup berth then you could get close to the “average”.

21) Lawrie Sanchez(58.04)
Fulham
Predicted Finish: 15th (*)
Actual Finish: 16th
Points: 4 (from 5 games)

The Real Man
It’s a little harsh to give Sanchez a score after so few games, but it is interesting to see how he compared to Coleman. Thing is, had he won an extra game he might be as high as Moyes, had he lost the game he won he would have got negative points! So, take this score with a pinch of salt. Basically, Sanchez kept Fulham up. Little else to say, really.

The Virtual Man
Beating Sanchez is not a challenge – it’s a requirement. If you complete the 38 game season with more than 34 points then you’ll do it. You don’t even need to stay up. To do better than that, have a look at Coleman’s stats which better show what Fulham really achieved this term.

(*) – modified target based on previous league performance of Fulham

22) Les Reed (39.97)
Charlton Athletic
Predicted Position: 17th (*)
Actual Position: 20th (**)
Points: 4 (over 7 games)

The Real Man
Like Sanchez, Reed didn’t have enough time to really develop a fair score. However, he still does better than Dowie (just about). Terrible score for a terrible performance. Only one league win, four points and rooted to the bottom of the table. Frankly, some might call his score kind.

The Virtual Man
What more can be said? Much like Sanchez, you could finish bottom of the league and still beat Reed, so there’s no challenge here. See Pardew’s Charlton season to see what achievement should look like.

(*) – modified target based on previous league performance of West Ham
(**) – position in league when Reed was sacked

23) Iain Dowie (38.94)
Charlton Athletic
Predicted Position: 16th
Actual Position: 20th (*)
Points: 8 (over 12 games)

The Real Man
The first manager to be sacked. Quite rightly. Charlton were abysmal under Dowie. OK, following Curbishley was a tall order but to be falling away at the bottom of the table after only a dozen games is unacceptable in anyone’s eyes. Remarkably, he’s not the worst manager this season…

The Virtual Man
Any manager can beat Dowie. If they don’t, they’ll probably get sacked before it gets that bad. Have a look at Pardew’s Charlton record for a better idea of Charlton’s limitations.

(*) – position in league when Reed was sacked

24) Alan Pardew (24.76)
West Ham United
Predicted Positon: 8th
Actual Position: 18th
Points: 14 (over 17 games)

The Real Man
Officially the worst manager of the year? Well, he’s also the 8th best manager of the year. On average he gets 69.97, which makes him a little better than Boothroyd. His West Ham reign is the worst, however, by quite a margin. West Ham were predicted to get close to Europe this season and yet thanks to Pardew they were in the relegation zone. Such underachievement gets a very low score in the FM-B:CL table. Pardew may not have had that terrible a record compared to the other managers around the relegation zone, but the better facilities and expectations at his disposal mean that he is punished most severely.

The Virtual Man
It is possible to do worse than Pardew, but it’s hard to see how you could do that over any sustained period. Curbishley shows us all how it should be done.